I have four main areas of research, as follows:
- Mean Sea level: local, regional and global trends, detection of accelerations, understanding of inter-annual variability
- Extreme sea levels and coastal Flooding: Changes in storm surges, extreme value analysis, compound events,
- Astronomical tides: inter-annual changes in tides (4.4 and 18.6-year tidal cycles), tidal energy
- Coasts: impacts of sea level rise, working with nature
E-Rise (2017-18, NERC, PI): Detecting accelerations in the rate of sea-level rise is not straightforward, due to the considerable inter-annualvariability evident in sea level at regional/local scales. However, these forecasts are important for long-term planning for coastal infrastructure. This project is exploring the feasibility of combining in situ and satellite-based data with statistical models to develop a toolbox which will help identify timings (with uncertainties) of sea-level rise rates and, accordingly, to estimate lead times. Read more…..
Synthesising Unprecedented Coastal Conditions: Extreme Storm Surges (SUCCESS) (2017-18, NERC, co-I): This project has synthesised a number of “black swan” storm surges – events that have not been observed but that are physically plausible. We did this by analysing and grouping European storm systems from reanalysis data, and then perturbing the atmospheric systems using a well tried and tested forecasting tool (made available to us by the Met Office). The modified wind and pressure fields were used to drive coupled storm surge and wave models to create the plausible worst cases. Read more…..
Adjust 1.5 (2017, NERC, co-I): This project defined and evaluated Adjustable emission Pathways (AP) to 1.5°C, in which the emissions pathway was not fixed at the outset, but instead responds to our evolving knowledge of the warming response to emission to deliver a warming target of 1.5°C over the 21st century and beyond. The project then examined the feasibility of the net carbon emissions and assess the changes for ocean pH and global mean and extreme sea-level rise and their associated societal impacts and implications following an Adjustable Pathway to 1.5 °C warming compared to Adjustable Pathways to 2.0 °C and 2.4 °C warming. Read more…..
Multi-Event Modelling Of Risk & recoverY (floodMEMORY) (2013-15, EPSRC, Southampton PI): This project investigated the effects of temporal clustering of flood events on natural, built and socio-economic systems with memory, in order to identify critical vulnerabilities, better allocate resources for protection and recovery, and improve flood resilience. Read more…..
iGlass (2012-2015, NERC, PI): Existing sea-level rise projections do not account for the longer-term changes in global land-based ice volume. Although this ice-sheet contribution to sea-level change develops over decades to centuries, its long-term impact is large and virtually irreversible. It therefore dominates the uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Read more…..